So I did it again, this time using pitchers whose ERA+ was 96 to 102 through age 28. That’s a group of 119, and Sanchez falls exactly in the middle.

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/1dnm1

Now, I did the same filter on them, looking for 100 or better ERA+ seasons from age 29 or later…

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/KFJcE

It’s still not great. Only 55 of those pitchers had one average season, and only 35 of the had more than one.

To summarize, of all pitchers over the past 51 years whose ERA+ was within three points of Jonathan Sanchez after 100+ starts through age 28, less than half of them had even a single “average” season as a major league starter from age 29 or later. Less than one third had more than one.

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