This is fun, isn’t it?

Maybe I can be an agent or a GM while I’m an unemployed sports writer.

Remember, he got #1 bonus in the draft despite falling to #5, though part of that was because a rumor floated that he wanted $12M; he eventually signed for a little over $6M, highest bonus until Boras somehow twisted around something for Alvarez so that he can claim that title.

So he’s already gotten really big money already, while Tulo and Longoria, they got a big bonus, but after taxes and agent cuts, they probably ended up around or under $1M left over once all said and done. Posey got $2-3M probably left over.

Still, $30M+ is nothing to sneeze, but looking at Lincecum’s path, in his first year in arbitration, he got $8M from the Giants. Posey, assuming he continues to do well, probably can expect at least $5-6M in 2013 assuming he Super-2′s as expected and $9-10M in 2014. So barring injury, which is a bigger possibility for a catcher (see Carlos Santana, Jason Castro), he only has to wait a few seasons to get to that big payoff, about half of that amount.

I just don’t see him signing for that low an amount to give cost certainty plus take him off the market for a season. $40M is probably where his side starts to get interested. Plus, remember, that was 3 seasons ago that Tulo signed, at 10% inflation per annum, would put that at roughly $42M in today’s baseball dollars, which is probably a little on the high side as salaries have not risen as much in recent years. Which put us back around $40M.

As for the free agent thing, Posey could always agree to something without the option years tacked on, if that’s a deal breaker. Perhaps the Giants could guarantee a little more up front to keep the options. It’s all negotiable.