Jeff Fletcher | September 30, 2010

Here at AT&T Park just finishing up. I actually wrote for FanHouse today, (and last night, on Brian Wilson). Today’s story will be posted here shortly. Anyway, since I’ve been doing some writing for the people who pay me, I’m not going to put as much here. (You guys don’t pay me squat.) But I do have a couple little random observations.

First, the Giants accomplished something significant by winning this game. They guaranteed that they need to beat the Padres only once over the weekend to win the division, regardless of what the Padres do today in San Diego. (It’s 0-0 in the 6th, as I write this).

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Jeff Fletcher | September 28, 2010

I’m not writing anything off tonight’s game for FanHouse. I’m just here collecting stuff for playoff stories and “babysitting,” which means coming here just in case there is some big news.

Anyway, I have to wait out the traffic before leaving, so here is a little of what’s kicking around in my head after this game.

The Giants are suddenly in a great spot. Their magic number is four, and they have an 87 percent chance to win the division and a 90 percent chance to go to the playoffs, according to coolstandings.com. They are two games up on the Padres with five to play. If they can just hold serve over the next two days, remaining two up, the Padres would have to sweep them here over the weekend. If the Giants are only one up going into that series, then it gets a little more dicey. That would also bring the Braves more into the picture.

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Jeff Fletcher | September 28, 2010

The Giants are switching their rotation, as was widely speculated the other day. They are moving Lincecum up to Wednesday, and moving Madison Bumgarner back to Thursday. That makes Lincecum available for a possible one-game playoff on Monday, and it also makes him semi-available, on three days rest, for a must-win game on Sunday.

Bruce Bochy wouldn’t even entertain the notion of Lincecum’s availability for Sunday at this point, which is probably wise. He doesn’t know how he’s going to do Wednesday. My opinion is that the Giants will use him if they have to win, but otherwise they won’t. Even if they are one game up, and losing the game would drop them into a playoff, they wouldn’t use him, because they’d have him for the playoff if they lost. And if they are tied with the Padres, with both teams going to the playoffs, they wouldn’t use him just for the sake of winning the division vs. getting the wild card.

Also, Freddy Sanchez is still out with a strained right shoulder. He got an injection today — presumably a cortisone injection, but they didn’t say — so he’s out today. They hope he’ll play tomorrow.

The Sanchez and Andres Torres injuries have made me think about how Brian Sabean is a genius. Or he just got lucky. Remember when he picked up Mike Fontenot and Cody Ross, and you were thinking “huh?” Do the Giants really need those guys? Well, guess what? They do. They have needed them both a bunch this month.

Also, it’s pretty warm here tonight, so don’t be surprised if the ball is flying.

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Jeff Fletcher | September 28, 2010

OK folks, I know that many of you have been hating on me for my repeated insistence that someone other than Buster Posey (first Jaime Garcia, and then Jason Heyward) deserved Rookie of the Year, but I have finally come around.

If I had a vote — which I don’t, by the way — I’d vote Buster Posey as Rookie of the Year, followed by Heyward and then Garcia.

What changed? Well, first of all, Heyward has cooled off after a great first half of September. As I look now, Posey has an .882 OPS and Heyward has an .853 OPS. In September, Posey is at .900 and Heyward is at .815. (That’s a pretty sharp decline, since Heyward was over 1.000 about 10 days ago.)

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Jeff Fletcher | September 27, 2010

As of this morning, the Giants are looking pretty good to go to the playoffs. Even though they only have a one-game lead on the Braves for a playoff spot, coolstandings.com figures them to have an 83 percent chance of going to the playoffs.

Further, it’s looking like the possible matchups are pretty clear, since the Phillies are going to have the best record and the Reds are going to have a worse record than whoever wins the West. Because the Reds lose the tie-breaker against the Giants and Padres, they are essentially two games back today.

So, if the Giants win the West and the Braves are the wild card (35.2 percent), the Giants will host the Braves.

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Jeff Fletcher | September 26, 2010

Because of the circumstances here today, I can’t help but think back to the final day of the 1998 season, when I was also here in Denver for what was a wild day.

The Giants were locked in a battle for the wild card. On the morning of the last day of the regular season, the Giants and Cubs were tied, and the Mets were one game back. There were all sorts of crazy scenarios still on the table that last day, including that three-way tie that gets talked about every year (including this year) but has never actually happened.

So when the day began, the Giants had a chance to go from Denver to Chicago or New York, for a one-game playoff, or to Atlanta, for the start of the division series, or back to San Francisco if their season ended. I am pretty sure I actually had reservations on four flights, just waiting to see which ticket I’d buy.

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Jeff Fletcher | September 26, 2010

The Giants have a very interesting situation upcoming with their rotation. Baggs and I were discussing it earlier this morning, and then apparently Bruce Bochy didn’t really say what he had planned regarding the rotation.

So we’re free to give our two cents.

Here’s the situation: the Giants currently have Sanchez, Bumgarner and Lincecum scheduled to go Tuesday through Thursday against Arizona, followed by Zito, Cain and Sanchez in the final three against the Padres. Because of the off day Monday, there are a lot of ways they could rework things in interest of putting Lincecum in the game you want him.

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