Posey, Podsednik, Bailey
Posted By Jeff Fletcher on July 27, 2010 9:26 am
I’m taking a page from my blogging (and jogging) hero Andy Baggarly, and writing a post about a variety of topics…
Let’s start with Buster Posey, who I wrote about today for FanHouse. Some of my Twitter followers have been relentlessly harassing me about something I tweeted the day Bengie Molina was traded.
Reality check: Buster Posey is in a 7-for-48 (.146) slump, and that was without thinking about catching every day. Just sayin. #sfgiants
It seems people have translated that into “Buster Posey stinks and he’s not going to hit.” Really, my only point in that tweet was that people should be careful in just assuming that Posey would immediately be better than Bengie. Posey was in a slump. That’s a fact. And he was just about to take on a huge defensive responsibility that very well might have affected his offense. I think there’s nothing at all illogical about my suggestion. I keep going back to Matt Wieters, who dominated offensively in the minors, but since he’s been in the majors, he’s been a nondescript hitter. Baseball people still believe Wieters is going to be a very good player, but they accept that it takes time to develop as a major league hitter, especially while catching every day.
Of course, Posey has had no trouble at all. In fact, he’s been not only better than anyone could have expected for a rookie catcher, he’s had one of the best offensive months of any Giants’ hitter in decades.
I still maintain that what he’s doing is exceptional, and you are nuts to say “told ya so,” as if this was at all expected. It’s like a guy playing blackjack who hits on 18 and gets a 3 and then says: “See, I knew it was the right play.” (Actually, the decision to go with Posey is more like hitting on 13 with the dealer showing an 8. You know it’s the right move, but you have to be prepared for the fact that it won’t work a large percentage of the time.)
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Reports came from three independent sources last night that the Giants were among the teams interested in the Royals’ Scott Podsednik (this and this and this). Although I couldn’t get confirmation from the Giants source I tried, I absolutely believe the reports. Those are three very reputable reporters.
Besides, Podsednik seems to the perfect fit for the Giants, considering what we know.
The Giants were close to acquiring David DeJesus from KC before he hurt his wrist, if Henry Schulman is to be believed (and I believe he is), so that tells you the Royals had already identified a couple Giants prospects who Brian Sabean was willing to move. That’s a big part of the battle.
Podsednik is a poor man’s version of DeJesus. He’s a left-handed hitting outfielder who hits for a good average and gets on base, but doesn’t have much power. Podsednik has a .308 average and .352 OBP today, and he was .304/.353 last year, so he’s no fluke.
He’d also come relatively cheaply, because he’s not a premium difference maker. He’s one of those “incremental improvements” you hear GMs talk about when they can’t get a star player. I’m guessing the Giants could get him for a Grade B and a Grade C prospect. No one the Giants will miss. The problem is that the Padres and Dodgers probably also want Podsednik, so there is some bidding going on.
If the Giants got Podsednik, he could play left field and bat leadoff every day (maybe getting an occasional day off against a lefty). Pat Burrell would go to the bench. If Travis Ishikawa slumps, then Huff could go to first, Burrell to left and Podsednik and Torres to center/right. (Not sure which alignment would be better defensively, but I don’t think you’d want Burrell in right in San Francisco.)
Podsednik is also relatively cheap. He’ll make about $600,000 the rest of this season. The down side is he can become a free agent at the end of the year. He has an option for $2 million, but he’ll be able to void that if he gets to 525 plate appearances, and he’s at 425 now.
Bottom line: This all looks perfectly reasonable from all sides, so I’m saying there’s a pretty good chance the Giants get him.
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Finally, my only A’s note of the day. Andrew Bailey has been out for a few days with back spasms, but a scout that I spoke to yesterday said he doesn’t believe that’s really what’s going on. He says he thinks Bailey has an arm problem, because back spasms wouldn’t normally sideline a guy for more than a day or two.
This guy also nailed Ben Sheets’ elbow injury, by the way. He called it just by watching him make his last start, despite Sheets’ denials that anything was wrong.
Stay tuned.
I had not understood how the Giants improve by getting an OF, but maybe now I’m getting it, from reading your article.
Right now, they have Huff, Burrell, Torres, Rowand, and Schierholtz in the OF. They have been essentially starting Burrell, Rowand, Torres vs. LHP (plus Huff at 1B) and Huff, Torres, Schierholtz vs. RHP (with Ishikawa at 1B).
Anybody playing LF regularly would push Huff to RF or 1B. If they get Podsednick to play LF regularly, that to me means that both Burrell and Schierholtz would be pushed to the bench. If Podsednick plays mostly against RHP, then Burrell would get back into the rotation against LHP.
So basically the new guy would replace Schierholtz in the starting lineup plus steal AB’s from Burrell.
But Podsednick’s .350+ OBP is a bit flukey. His career OBP is .341 and if you look into his career numbers, he has been wildly up and down for OBP for his career, mainly dependent on what he does against LHP.
Looking deeper, Bill James Handbook notes that LHB get a 17% boost in batting average, while taking away HR. He doesn’t hit many homers anyway, so that doesn’t hurt him much, but his average got a big boost, and thus also his OBP. That probably accounts for his boost in OBP playing for KC vs. his career numbers.
He’s OK for another left-handed bat, but I would rather bring up Bowker and let him and Schierholtz battle for the RF AB’s. He’s an improvement over what Schierholtz has been doing, plus then we would have him lead-off and Torres bat second, where his power could be put to use to drive in Podsednik. But, I think our offense should be good enough to keep us in contention.
However, I can live if the Giants don’t make the playoffs this season, whereas the Giants are trying to do all that they can to make the playoffs without jeopardizing the future, so I understand why they kick tires all over. As long as we give up less for Podsednik than we would have for DeJesus, I would be OK with the deal, as Pod is gone at the end of the season while DeJesus would have still been around.
I guess between Pod and DeJesus, I prefer Pod because then an OF position is left open for Schierholtz and Bowker (or even Neal, Brown, or Parker next season).
Lastly, great article. I totally agree about Posey, no prospect, not even top prospects, start well and/or continue to do well. Some struggle like Weiters and Andy Marte have, heck, Stanton and Alvarez have struggled too this season, not all start well like Heyward, Strasburg, Santana, and continue, there are ups and downs. We are fortunate that Posey got a lift from taking over the catcher’s position, but it could have very well turned out like Weiters, who has basically been sub-700 OPS since he came up, except for the last two weeks of the 2009 season, when he was hot, like Posey has been.
If they truly believe that they have the skill to divine which prospect can play well, then they would be hired by the Giants instantly, such a skill to see this so clearly is impossible to get anywhere, there is nobody who is 50% correct on this, let alone 100%.
I think I would rather have LA or SD “win” Podsednik. His numbers are boosted by KC’s home park, boosted in 2010 by his abnormal away numbers. and so they should fall down greatly playing in SD’s park, and I think LA wouldn’t get much of a boost playing Podsednik, he shouldn’t provide much of a boost to them.
Why Beane don’t get blasted more in the press, I don’t know. Chavez’s deal has hamstrung the A’s worse than Zito had to the Giants, as Zito at least was physically able to play, and this Sheets deal and injury would be blasted into high heaven by the legion of Sabean Naysayers that frequent the boards. Let alone losing CarGon and Streets for Holliday and getting back what I thought were lesser players than they had given up, it was like he traded down, yet no rancor in the media. He is so teflon. Is it because he owns part of the A’s?