Jeff Fletcher | April 28, 2010
Just a reminder to anyone who is thinking that the service-time threshold for Buster Posey avoiding Super Two status will be passing in May: It won’t.
Did you forget that he had 33 days of service time at the end last season? (It would be easy to forget, since he only had 17 at-bats.)
Super Twos (players who are arbitration-eligible with less than three years of service time) are normally guys who have about 2 years and 140 days of service time or more, although it could be as low as 2.120. If we assume that once Posey gets to the big leagues, he’s going to stay, he just has to have more than 120 days of service time at the end of this season to be a possible Super Two after the 2012 season.
Since Posey already has 33, it means he’s going to be in Super Two neighborhood if he gets even as little as 90 days this year. If the Giants want to be sure to avoid that, they’d have to keep him in the minors till sometime around the All-Star break.
Now, we can debate whether the Giants should even be concerned about Posey’s Super Two status. You can say they shouldn’t, and that they are penny-pinching if they are even thinking that way. However, look what happened with Tim Lincecum, who ended up being a Super Two this year by 10 days. Were those extra 10 days of Lincecum in 2007 (a year the Giants had a losing record) worth the extra $7 million or so they have to pay Lincecum in 2010?
(By the way, Lincecum is a highly unusual case because he won the Cy Young award twice. If he’d been just a normal very good pitcher, like Justin Verlander, his first-time arbitration salary would have been more like $4 million, so those 10 days didn’t cost the Giants as much as a few votes by 32 baseball writers with Cy Young ballots. A guy like Brian McCann, who is a best-case scenario for Posey, went from $800,000 to $3.5 million the first year he was arbitration eligible. That was part of a multiyear deal he signed when he was just a 1-plus player.)
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