The case of Fred Lewis in LF
Posted By Jeff Fletcher on May 1, 2009 11:02 pm
Bruce Bochy pulled Fred Lewis in the ninth inning of a one-run game tonight, putting Randy Winn in left and Nate Schierholtz in right. Bochy admitted afterward it was a move strictly based on defense. He said he might start doing this more regularly.
It brings up a couple interesting points.
First, the statistics (like Ultimate Zone Rating) say that Lewis is having another good year defensively. He’s third in the majors in that metric among all left fielders. So either the stats or Bochy are wrong on that one. I’m siding with Bochy, based on my own untrained eyes and also on a conversation I had a couple weeks ago with Padres GM Kevin Towers.
Towers, who is probably the GM who best straddles the line between scouting and stats, told me that the defensive stats still aren’t there, for him. Lewis, by the way, was the topic when we got on this discussion.
It was also curious that Bochy chose this particular game to finally decide he didn’t want Lewis in left field. It made me wonder if it had anything to do with the fact that the victory they were trying to protect on this particular night was No. 297 for Randy Johnson. I almost asked Bochy this specifically, but I didn’t figure he’d tell me that was the reason, even if was. How would the other pitchers then feel if Lewis was out there when their victories were on the line?
Interesting point … I think tools like UZR don’t take into account things like actually CATCHING THE DAMN BALL when it’s hit to a player. That’s been Lewis’ problem this year … he has good speed and covers good ground, all things UZR places high values on, but he can’t catch the damn ball … he’s got a brick glove out there. That’s something UZR doesn’t factor in much and that’s the flaw in their system … I think anyone with half a brain and decent eyesight can see that Lewis is NOT the 3rd best rated left fielder. lewis’ case clearly shows that in some instances, these metrics that are increasingly relied upon by anyone from writers, to your common blogger, to scouting departments, just can’t beat old-fashioned scouting work.
I don’t think it’s crazy for Lewis to be considered one of the top defensive left fielders. Most LF are slow sluggers, so Lewis is definitely one of the best athletes at the position.
He gets to balls that others can’t which must factor into this rating.
Lewis just has occasional brain farts that shouldn’t happen at the Major League level, which makes everyone uncomfortable on every ball hit to him.
LAdodgerhater:
Think about it this way: if Lewis drops one ball in left, all he has to do to make up for it is catch one ball the average left fielder wouldn’t catch, and he’s back to being average defensively. As fans, him screwing up an easy play like that will obviously stick in our minds more than a couple of running catches he makes. However, the reality is as long as he gets to more balls an average LF wouldn’t than he drops, he’s an above average fielder (especially when you start to consider extra bases he saves by cutting off hits other LF’s wouldn’t)…
Basically, I think fans have a hard time being objective about things like this (understandably), which is where the stats can help us. At the same time, Jeff makes a good point about knowledgeable baseball people seeing the need for a combination of both scouting and stats – my guess is Lewis is somewhere close to in the middle of what Bochy and the stats say – probably a little above average.
I can see why he pulled Lewis, though, because if Lewis made a bad play and blew Johnson’s win there would be a lot more anger/blame than there would be credit given if Lewis made a nice play and Johnson got the win…
Totally off subject I realize, but I need to point this out for those who don’t truly appreciate the enormity of the problems with the Giants offense:
- SF is last in the NL in OPS, HRs, Runs, Plate Appearances, At-Bats, Walks, Slugging and Total Bases (and next to last in OBP thanks to the Diamondbacks’ terrible start)
- Bengie Molina, the Giants’ “best hitter” (which is not necessarily a compliment) does not have a single walk yet this year and his OBP is 12 points lower than his batting average. That’s borderline impossible.
- Ishikrapa has a .288 slugging % and a .542 OPS; at some point the Giants have to realize that they’d be better off with almost anyone else in the lineup besides him. He looks completely lost and overwhelmed at the plate.
- Fred Lews is on pace for 190 strikeouts; that’s not exactly the production you look for in a leadoff hitter. The good news is that his OBP is great thus far at .420, the bad news is that he only has 1 SB which is again hard to comprehend given that the Giants were preaching youth, speed and defense this year. If that’s the case then they may want to start giving him the green light a bit more often, it’s not like they can afford to play station-to-station or wait for the big homer or drive into the alley that so rarely comes.
- Burriss and Winn have held up their end of the bargain as well by being embarrassingly bad offensively thus far but I’m still holding out a bit of hope for them. If nothing else Winn has proven that he’s a consistent hitter average-wise, I’d be surprised if he’s not at or near .290 by the time the season’s over. As for Burriss I’m hoping he can get his OBP to a palatable figure, he’s starting to hit better as of late but it’s his ability to get on base via the walk that he needs to focus on improving. If he doesn’t show consistent improvement over the next month I’m afraid the Giants may revert back to Frandsen.
Just heard from a friend of mine who covers the Dodgers that the Dodger players actually were making fun of Lewis’ inadequacies in the outfield. For what it’s worth.
B -
I see your point. I think a combo of real scouting and tools like UZR are worth it … I just don’t like the fact that some people put all of their eggs in one of those baskets.
Just from pure observation, Lewis looks awkward out there. He may have more range, sure … but I don’t think his arm is anything to write home about, he takes weird routes to the ball now and then, and he basically looks like Gumby out there. Awkward, choppy … he just doesn’t look smooth or comfortable there. That’s something only real scouting work can see …
Couple that with the fact that he’s been swinging the bat like it has swiss cheese holes in it, and yeah … there’s a case for him to park it on the bench for a while. He’s 28 or 29, so he’s not really a prospect anymore. That supposed power that the Giants coaches were raving about Lewis having … where is it? I guess I’m pretty biased about it, I’ll admit … to me he looks like a 4th outfielder, so I’m frustrated as to why the Giants have a guy like Schierholtz rotting on the bench.
I think now would be a fun time to go back and read this…
http://baybridgebaseball.com/2009/01/what-will-fred-lewis-become/
I was writing over the winter that Lewis looked a fourth outfielder to me, but some of the readers were still under the impression that he’s some sort of budding star.
LAdodgerh8r, yeah I can agree with you about not putting all your eggs in one basket. Especially since, as Jeff wrote in the article, respected baseball people don’t think the defensive stats are there, yet. Thanks for the bit about the Dodgers players, Jeff – stupid Dodgers, screw them!
While Lewis and his strikeouts/defense can definitely be frustrating, he is playing like a starter right now – his OBP is over .400 – 18th best in the NL. I think some of his power will come around, and I’ll take the high OBP, that’s incredibly valuable. I don’t think he’ll ever hit that many HR’s, but his gap power and speed should improve his power numbers.