Breaking down Brian Wilson
Posted By Jeff Fletcher on March 3, 2009 11:00 pm
One of my readers, frustrated by a few days without a good Giants debate, suggested we talk about Brian Wilson.
So, which do you believe, the 41 saves or the 4.62 ERA? Do you think he’s a legit front-line closer or just a guy who got lucky for a year?
I think he’s the real deal. He was pretty good for the whole season, minus a few blowups.. I tend to believe ERA’s for relievers are not that telling because they pitch relatively few innings.
That said, I wouldn’t mind seeing a few more 1-2-3 innings out of him this year.
What do you think?
I agree. ERA can be misleading for a short-inning reliever. Wilson has the fastball and the warrior mentality, but he needs an effective second pitch and/or pinpoint control to become a top-flight closer.
I think Giants fans and the public overall gives Wilson more credit than he deserves. Sure he had a good saves total, an above-average fastball and he’s got the prerequisite number of tattoos that any good closer should have, but his numbers last year really weren’t that impressive. Aside from decent strkeout figures, a good closer can’t have a WHIP of 1.44, should not allow a .320 BA and .889 OPS to right-handed hitters and really shouldn’t be giving up 7 HRs in 62 IP in one of the better parks to pitch in. But hey, at least he’s got that soul-patch, that should count for something.
The value of a closer is measured by saves and nothing else. Would you take 40 saves and a lousy ERA and WHIP every year? Of course you would. The only thing the numbers say is that Wilson raised Bochy’s blood pressure. But he got the job done. Will he do it again? Who knows, but he deserves the chance and he’s the best they have.
I say give him a chance. Maybe his intense workout regimen with Barry Zito will allow Zito’s fastball to not plateau at 84 mph. Hopefully throwing baseball’s across canyons will add some mph. That alone will be worth his salary and designation as closer.
I agree with Jeff and Harold. I think Wilson did a good job in his first year as a closer and can be the real deal. His development of a second pitch is the key for continued success as that will lower all the collateral numbers and grow the number of 1-2-3- innings and prevent him from being the next Felix Rodriguez.
He reminds me of a Joe Borowski or a Todd Jones type closer…guys who always get themselves into trouble before ultimately holding onto a two or three run lead. Of course, the save is the worst stat in baseball (I might be exaggerating, but still), so I don’t put much stock in it. Put any average reliever in the exact same closer’s role and they’ll most likely put up similar numbers. The Giants’ offense sucked, so when they were winning it was in close games, so there were lots of save opportunities. Simple as that. Wilson will be fine, but he’s not a top end reliever by any stretch of the imagination.
I think in 2008 he performed better than his stats indicate he should but he’s still better than many at that spot. It will be interesting to see what adding a change up to his arsenal does. I agree with Q in his assessment. He’s not going to be a Rivera / Nathan / Eck type of shut down guy. He will ultimately get the job done most of the time but will raise the collective fan base’s blood pressure in the process.
Harold, the point is not to evaluate how he did last year, or even to decide if he should be the closer this year. Obviously, the Giants would be crazy not to keep him in the role after he had 41 saves.
The point is to try to determine how good he is going to be in the future. I think there are good arguments to be made on both sides.
Let’s also remember this: very few closers routinely pitch 1-2-3 innings. Most of them make things interesting because, well, things are already interesting if it’s the ninth inning in a close game.
Harold understands the question. Harold was responding to the point that Wilson did not have as good a year as fans and media say he did because his WHIP and ERA were high. If you’re using WHIP and ERA as a predictor that’s fine, but those numbers are mostly irrelevant when judging a past season. Just save baby! Will Wilson repeat? Harold doesn’t know.
I guess Zito’s offseason program didn’t help judging by today’s pitching line:
B Zito 2 2-3 4 3 3 1 2 1
And please don’t respond that “it’s only spring training”, “He’s working on his pitches” or “it’s hitter friendly in AZ”
Face it ZIto is terrible. Probably one of the worst pitchers in the entire national league. The Giants should simply cut him and write off this terrible decision.
And no Jeff, Zito’s Giants career isn’t a result of the Giants porous defense.
Zito should change his charity from K’s for the troops to bb’s for the troops.
Bottom line: he scares me every time he comes out to close out a game. If that’s the feeling I get, then I’m not feeling too good about things. I really hope he improves his game and lowers that WHIP, but I’m not too confident.
Harold –
It seems like you put a lot of thought into your statement that a closer should be measured by saves and saves alone. So following that line of thinking you would say that Bobby Thigpen had the second best year of any closer in history in 1990, correct? That Wilson had just as good a year last year with his very questionable stats than did Brad Lidge who didn’t blow a save, had great strikeout totals and only gave up 2 HRs in the Phillies’ homer heaven of a ballpark?
There’s no denying that Wilson will be the Giants closer this year, my point is that he’s just not one of the better ones in the league (contrary to his All-Star inclusion last year).
Good. Not great. Not elite level either.
I am of the camp he could get better but I am not banking that he will. Bottom line he should have the job tell he earns his way out of it. If someone proves they are a better at shutting the door when things are falling apart I would rather that guy be available for any situation in the late innings any ways- not just waiting for the nineth as the place burns down.
Biff
Let’s start over. Maybe I’ll do a better job of saying what I mean. Saves is all that matter for a closer (and yes I agree saves is an imprecise stat because all saves are not created equal). For example (and not using real numbers) if Wilson has 50 save opportunities and converts all 50 successfully, he had a better year than another guy who saved only 45 of 50 opportunities, even though Wilson’s ERA and WHIP are much higher than the other guy’s. That’s all. All other things being equal, ERA, WHIP, and Ks are just style points. The point is to save the victory. I think we would agree there.
I also agree with what I thought was your bigger point, which is that if one drills down past the saves and looks at the other numbers, Wilson’s year looks pretty rocky, and could be a sign that he will not be as good this year. Going just from memory, I recall he had outings where he got himself in trouble and was lucky that some hard hit balls were caught. He also had stretches of dominance. I think he needs a slider or spitter of off-speed pitch to keep the batters off balance.
Harold -
I liked you much better when you referred to yourself in the 3rd person like Rickey Henderson and made bold statements like nothing matters other than saves for a closer. This new and improved Harold makes some valid points and doesn’t open himself up for criticism as easily.
You’re right in that saving the victory is ultimately what matters most, but I disagree to a certain extent that how that save is earned and the closer’s stats are style points. There’s a distinct difference between elite closers who have/had great numbers like Gagne, Eckersley, Nen & Rivera in their primes than run of the mill guys like Wilson. When an elite closer enters the game nearly everyone, including the opposing team, assumes that the game is over. It’s almost like their resigned to the fact that there’s little to no chance of rallying against a top-flight closer, you can see it in how they approach their ABs. Guys like Wilson aren’t viewed as untouchable; teams don’t have their confidence dashed when they see a pitcher who’s prone to give up walks and/or an HR come in the game. As fans we know the distinction just as well; when Nen was in his prime and he came in with a lead I had complete confidence that the game was as good as over. I have yet to get that feeling with Wilson.
Also because he will walk batters, give up hits and doesn’t have a big strikeout rate, he puts added pressure on his defense to perform well behind him. Closers who rarely walk anyone, have low opponents batting average (i.e. a good WHIP) and have a good K/9 don’t rely nearly as much on their defense to field their positions, make terrific plays or turn DPs in order to earn the save. Blown saves happen to even the best closers, I guess my point is that guys like Wilson increase the likelihood that a save will get blown.
All that being said and going back to the original question that Jeff posed, I think Wilson is just an average pitcher who had 41 saves last year in spite of his performance, he’s not a top MLB closer at this point. But at least he looks like how a closer should look, if that matters to anyone.
Harold was a bit concerned about his image but also had to acknowledge some of the errors in his rant. I actually thought of the aura-as-unbeatable argument you made and agree that guys like Gagne and Rivera carried that into games and probably succeeded at times because of it. I can’t really disagree with anything you say. I can only fall back on my entirely unrealistic hypothetical that if a guy saved 50 games out of 50 chances it wouldn’t matter that he walked the bases loaded every time before he pulled his stones from the fire.
I don’t agree that Wilson is mediocre. I’m agnostic; it’s not knowable. He’s got a lively fastball, a good attitude, and works hard. If he gets a second pitch, he could be an elite closer.