A’s land Cabrera, Nomar next?
Posted By Jeff Fletcher on March 2, 2009 12:15 pm
The Orlando Cabrera deal is reportedly done, and the story says the A’s are closing in on Nomar Garciaparra. Looks like Cabrera is getting $4 million from the A’s, who are going to surrender a second-round pick in June.
Super-quick first impression: Meh. I think Cabrera is definitely an upgrade over Bobby Crosby, but how much of an upgrade? He hit .281 last year with eight homers and a .334 on-base percentage. None of that screams “impact player.” More like “incremental improvement.”
Not that any of us care about the A’s payroll, but right now it looks like they are going to be paying around $9 million for Cabr-osby unless they can find someone to take part of Crosby’s $5.3 million contract.
Also, call me crazy, but I like Bobby Crosby. I don’t really have any reason to believe that he’ll suddenly stop waving at those outside pitches and become the hitter everyone thought he could be, but I still feel like he’s got a better chance of having a big improvement than Cabrera does. (I can feel the folks at Athletics Nation cutting and pasting that insightful, numbers-based analysis to ridicule me.)
As for Garciaparra, I think he’s a pretty low-risk acquisition. I’m sure the A’s aren’t planning to pay him much, and he does provide a right-handed bat who can play first and third, which is a solid fit for the A’s bench.
Side note, I hope none of the A’s beat writers in Arizona were enjoying anything fun on their off day when this news hit.
looks like we got ourselves a leadoff hitters boys!
and certainly makes the Giants Renteria signing very foolish.
There’s no way O-Cab should be hitting leadoff. A .334obp belongs in the botton third of the lineup. Especially a .334 obp with no pop and few walks. He just isn’t that good at getting on base. Buck or Sweeney should be up there.
I’m in the same boat as you, Jeff. I’m pretty meh over the signing. It is nice to see Crosby isn’t getting a free pass anymore. It’s amazing how long the A’s have put up with his lack of production to date. However, Cabrera probably won’t end up being the difference between a division title and missing the playoffs, so I’m not sure what the justification is for spending 4 mil and a 2nd rounder.
Nomar will be a fun signing, and a decent guy to have off the bench. Nothing more, nothing less.
More like we got an 8 or 9 hitter. Cabrera isn’t going to be hitting leadoff. He doesn’t get on base enough to warrant that.
I thought it was pretty low risk but certainly nothing to get excited about. Same feeling I have about Garciaparra.
The only thing that I started thinking about was maybe Ellis is not as healthy or as close to game readiness as they A’s have led us to believe.
One issue is unless I am mistaken, Crosby hasn’t played any position other than SS as a professional. If he is going to be the utility guy they need to get him reps at second and third. He is certainly athletic enough to pick that up quickly but they should start getting him ready. Since there were no teams willing to take him before I don’t think we are going to see much interest in him as part of a trade. I would think that Pennington and Hannahan are not going to make the squad now.
The only statistical reason OCab could be a huge improvement over Crosby is if one has a large amount of faith in the UZR defensive stat. It’s one of the best defensive stats out there but it’s not the a stat that is so accurate that we can claim a 2 win upgrade as UZR could portend us to believe.
The way I see it is that Cabrera and Crosby are both projected to hit similarly and Cabrera field slightly better. Cabrera is a pretty sure thing to match his projections. Crosby is not. BoCro could very easily outperform or underperform his projection. In other words, Crosby has a larger standard deviation in his performance projection.
Where the signing is a plus is that Crosby is an improvement over Pennington and Petit and if one of Chavez/Ellis/Nomar gets hurt, Crosby can step in and provide slightly better than replacement level production. Most teams are stuck playing Angel Berroa when their starting SS/2b goes down. This signing makes sure the A’s will not see quite that level of suckitude this year.
Cabrera also could provide the A’s with two draft picks next year. He is all but assured to be a Type A FA next offseason and the A’s would be in good shape to offer arb. If he accepts the A’s get their 2010 SS (which is empty unless Cardenas explodes this year). If he declines Cabrera could enter a better economy. Combine that with Duke and Holliday, the A’s could get 4 first round picks (although that’s very unlikely) and 3 supplemental. Springer and Giambi are also outside shots at garnering picks but I’d be very, very surprised to see either continue playing and leave the A’s, let alone decline arb and a team decide to lose a pick for them. I suppose Crosby could also gain a draft pick but that’s even more unlikely now.
As for Nomar, I’d love to see the A’s sign him. He’d make a good platoon partner for Chavez who should be rested consistently. He also provides the depth which precludes us from seeing Hannahan for 100 games.
On another note when was the last time the A’s were rumored to sign 5 FAs in March? Cabrera’s signed. Nomar and Reyes could be coming. And Mulder still makes sense on a minor league deal. Add Sisco on a minor league deal and the A’s could be going on a FA frenzy.
Bobby Crosby has 2400 plate appearances over six seasons, hitting .239/.306/.380 and you think he has a chance of figuring it out, Jeff?
I’m not exactly cuckoo for Cabrera, but the AL West is a winnable division and *hoping* Bobby Crosby turns into what we all thought he’d become five years ago is pretty wishful thinking.
Hey, I admitted it wasn’t logical.
I guess I like Crosby’s power potential. He did hit 22 homers. Once.
Looks like they are on the verge of closing a deal with Nomar also. Seeing as how Crosby is quoted as never having played anywhere but short it seems a safe bet they are going to move him somewhere. They are likely going to have to eat some of his contract since no one has had any interest whatsoever in him. I think the A’s will pretty much take any kind of deal for him at this point. He’s a decent defender and has shown flashes of ability at the plate but overall he has a 2 cent head and doesn’t have the mental makeup to live up to his potential.
Brad, I don’t know why you say that Crosby has a “two-cent head.” I don’t think that is the case at all. I think he’s a pretty smart, on-the-ball dude. He’s just got some mechanical problems with his swing and some discipline problems with the pitches he chooses to swing at.
I say that because he doesn’t let anything go. He carries everything with him from one at bat to the next and instead of having the occasionally 0-4 night he strings together a couple days like that which is why he’s never quite able to dig himself out of the hole. That’s purely mental and something I don’t see him growing out of.
Part of the frustration with him is how smart he is and how he continues to wave at breaking pitches off the plate and pound outside pitches into the shortstop’s glove over and over again.
While not an earth-shattering deal Cabrera brings the consistency in both at the plate and in the health dept that Bobby sorely lacked. Nomar is a nice RH bat off the bench to platoon with Chavez, and comes cheap.
World Champion teams have benches like the A’s have assembled.
As long as their 12 starters can get through the 6th with 3-4 runs or less, this team wins the division and has an outside shot at going all the way. Per usual, it will all depend on health.
Nomar has landed
better IF than hannahan and crosby IMO (when used in a back up role)