Now playing short for the A’s…
Posted By Jeff Fletcher on February 17, 2009 5:53 pm
Here’s a fun game. Let’s say for the sake of argument that Bill James really does have a crystal ball he uses to make all those nifty projections, and they are actually 100 percent accurate. James has decided that Bobby Crosby is going to hit .243/.309/.372 with 12 homers this year.
Now, let’s say that right after ol’ Bill looks into his crystal ball and tells you that, the Genie from Aladdin pops out of nowhere and says that he can, with one snap of his fingers, improve that to .274/.327/.378 with nine homers and better defense.
All you have to do to make this miracle happen is double Crosby’s salary to around $10.5 million.
Would you do it?
I should hope not.
Thing is, that’s pretty much the arrangement that A’s fans have been clamoring for.
See, those Genie-inflated numbers are actually the projected totals this year for Orlando Cabrera, which are surprisingly pedestrian. And in order to get Cabrera instead of Crosby, the A’s would pretty much have to pay Cabrera and Crosby. (No one is taking Crosby’s $5.3 million salary in a trade.) The idea of getting Cabrera for another $5 million also assumes that he’s desperate enough to take a 50 percent pay cut from the $10 mil he made last year. At the moment that’s obviously not the case, or he’d be signed.
Point is, maybe we’ve all missed the boat on this Cabrera thing. (Well, we in the non-Billy Beane division, anyway.) I admit, I was right there with you guys thinking the A’s should sign Cabrera, but now that I look at it in these terms, I’m not so sure.
You can argue that although the A’s would likely be overpaying Cab-rosby for the production they’d get in 2009, they’d have Cabrera for next year, when Crosby would be gone to free agency. Again, that assumes not only that Cabrera would sign for cheap, but that he’d commit himself to multiple years for cheap.
So now I’m thinking the A’s ought to just stick with Crosby, hoping that chip on his shoulder and those tips from Mark McGwire make a difference.
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For the record Jeff, I am an A’s fan and I have in no way been clamoring for O-Cab.
I’m with Daniel.
Jeff, your poll needs a third option: “No way. Only put 8 men on the field.”
cabreras health/defensive value
he’s played 150 games or more in 7 of 8 last yrs.
fangraphs ranked his defensive value last yr best among mlb ss’s
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=400&type=6&season=2008&month=0
i see 2 options here: get cabrera or go find an mlb ready SS (hu, donald, pennington, petit).
Hey, it is not my money, but the poll also doesn’t address what the A’s do with the extra five million dollars. If that money is going to Reyes or another left handed reliever, signing a couple of decent prospects out of Latin America, or drafting over-slot, then I am fine with not signing Cabrera. If it is going to stay in the ownership’s pockets, then I’ll take the marginal improvement of Cabrera. Ultimately, I have no faith in Crosby getting any better. The sample size we have on his hitting is pretty significant and most of it indicates that he is what we think he is.
Jeff-
You’re right that there are much better ways to spend that $5M. The A’s should only pursue Cabrera if they can dump some of Crosby’s salary. I think there probably are some teams willing to pay $2.5-3M of Bobby’s contract and give us a couple of picks or prospects in return. There has been some talk of what the Astros will do if the Tejada circus continues much longer, and infield depth is something the Yankees/BoSox/other contenders may realize a need for in the first few weeks of camp. If we can get Cabrera for a net $7-8M this year and $5-6M in ’10, it would be a pretty good move to put a lock on the SS position until Beane can work some magic in the draft or Latin America. On that note, can Jemile Weeks (2008 1st rounder at 2B from Miami) play SS? How is the SS free-agent market looking for next offseason, because it does not look like the A’s have any promising middle-infield prospects in the near term unless Pennington, Petit, etc. really start to impress in AA/AAA this season. I truly hope Crosby can just storm out of the gate with an improved approach and silence all critics while announcing an intent to take a pay cut and remain in Oakland after the season (ala Ellis), but that possibility does not seem likely. Thanks again for your thoughts and analysis.
difference between Cabrera and Crosby is that:
O-Cab – will give the A’s a legitimate lead off runner – this way we won’t have to use Buck or Suzuki or whomever is not comfortable at the batting order. He also has playoff experience so when the Athletics make the playoff push this year he will be clutch and provide a veteran presence in the clubhouse similar to Giambi. Plus I don’t think statistics tell everything and I believe it is time for a change.
I dont want to overpay for o-cab guy either
I think the A’s need at least one veteran SP before they can really compete in the AL west this season.
After reading Susan Slusser’s blog, I was reminded that the A’s would also lose a draft pick for signing Cabrera. All in all, looks not very likely.
Maybe if Cabrera comes down to about $3 million AND the A’s can find a team to take $2-3 million of Crosby’s salary…
I wonder happened to the additional $20 million dollars Beane was granted to play around with this year? I read about the additional funding Beane got from an
so 12-13 mil went to Holiday….
how about the other 7 or so? hmmmm
I think the other $7M has gone to a combo of relievers (Springer, Wuertz, maybe Sisco), Giambi, and probably some other people I overlooked. Also, Wolff’s net worth has continued to take a big hit as his, and presumably a lot of the other owners’, wealth is highly tied to real estate. Not only has the property value of all those fancy hotels gone down, but more stringent regulations on executive perks and bonuses leave a lot of those rooms empty (just call up the Fairmont in SF and see how they’re doing as conventions are cancelled). Not sure how much Wolff’s bottom line is directly tied to the A’s coffers but in any case I’m sure Beane has not exactly been told to go out and buy solutions for all vacancies and concerns.
I was a fan of signing Furcal, because he is legit…and since both him and Crosby are injury prone, they’d probably both get playing time throughout the year. Cabrera smells of making a move just for the sake of making a move…which is something Beane doesn’t usually do. He always has a sound reason for his moves, even if they don’t always work out.
Instead of signing O-Cab, they should just save the money, use it in the draft, and maybe sign Ben Sheets midseason when he’s healthy and we’re (hopefully) looking to make a run at the division (and need a stud to take over for Duke when he’s inevitably injured).
As much as we beat Crosby over the head for his offensive numbers, his defense hasn’t been that bad. He had a stretch early in the season last year where he made a lot of errors but overall he was pretty good. His offensive numbers were obviously atrocious.
Cabrera is not an upgrade over Crosby when you factor in likely salary and loss of pick (I think they would lose a second rounder for signing him). His defensive range has deteriorated in recent years and I personally see him needing to make a shift to second base because his arm is not very strong anymore. He doesn’t offer more power than Crosby. Just empirically from the days of watching him with the Angels he doesn’t seem to walk much so his OBP is probably not that much higher than Crosby’s.
Unless the A’s can get a great deal for him I don’t see it happening. I was a big fan of the Furcal deal even though there was risk because he provided several elements that a guy like Crosby cannot offer. I think if Crosby plays a full season at even marginally better than what he did last year at the plate you get pretty similar production to what Cabrera offers at this point in his career.
There are certainly question marks in 2010 and beyond based on the depth in the minors at that spot but signing Cabrera doesn’t answer those either.
In a vacuum the answer here is no, but the games aren’t played in a vacuum so my answer is sign him. There is no prize for who won the most games on the most cost effective budget, but there are for teams that win divisions and playoff games. Cabrera takes the A’s from real contender to the team to beat, and there may be a trade market for Crosby should the A’s fit the bill for $3M of his salary.
Would you sign Cabrera for essentially $8M plus a 2nd rounder? I would…
slusser’s blog said A’s are willing to lose the 2nd rd pick, the issue is cabrera’s asking price/pride wanting 9mill…no one will give him that. he better take that 3mill pay cut or enjoy unemployment. there just arent any worthwhile FA’s after that, maybe mulder on minor league deal, lefty reliever like beimel/ohman/reyes for 1mill or so. i just have no confidence in crosby, at worst i’ll take the speed/defense/obp combo of pennington or giving petit a shot.
Petit has been a good SS at every level, but the A’s don’t seem to want to give him a shot. He’s supposed to have ++ defense, and even his bat isn’t terrible. No worse than Crosby’s has been.
I hope the A’s go into camp with a 3 man open competition for the starting SS role with Crosby, Pennington, and Petit. And I think Petit could surprise some people.
A look at Cabrera vs. Crosby:
In the last few years, Cabrera hit leadoff from May of last year til the end of the season, and that’s it. So I’d say he’s not a leadoff hitter. When healthy, Crosby has 20 homerun potential. Cabrera hasn’t had more then 10 since 2003. So let’s say they both bat 7th, since clearly Cabrera nor Crosby is the A’s leadoff hitter. Would you rather have that 20 homerun threat hitting behind Cust/Giambi? Say they hit or 8th or 9th. Is Cabrera worth 10 mil, or 12 mil, or 15 mil in that spot? Add a 2nd round pick on top of that and it’s obvious that whether you like him or not Crosby is the better choice
if cabrera is unwilling to take 5mill, enjoy unemployment. interesting thats orlando hudson’s asking price also and what abreu got. both are superior players imo.
hey fletch, looks like you got your crosby wish. lets say he does have a good/fluke season in 09, you better believe he’d bolt for the money in free agency. what an offseason, furcal drags out negotiations for weeks, now cabrera rejects 5mill and is willing to switch positions. i really hope pennington/petit has a great spring training.
Dodgers Eyeing Orlando Cabrera
By Drew Silva [February 20, 2009 at 10:18am CST]
According to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, the Dodgers have begun talks with free agent infielder Orlando Cabrera.
Cabrera, normally a shortstop, told the club that he’d be willing to make the move to second base. Gurnick writes that the Dodgers are “uncertain they can work a deal for second baseman Orlando Hudson,” and believe Cabrera would be a viable fit. The 34-year-old hit .281/.334/.371 with eight home runs and 57 RBI last season for the White Sox. He also stole 19 bases.
The A’s have also shown interest in Cabrera this offseason, but haven’t been pleased with his asking price.
[...] Fletcher discusses Orlando Cabrera versus Bobby Crosby. Looking at the numbers A’s fans have miscalculated the benefit of signing [...]
[...] Fletcher discusses Orlando Cabrera versus Bobby Crosby. Looking at the numbers A’s fans have miscalculated the benefit of signing [...]