Comments on: No Crede? No problem http://baybridgebaseball.com/2009/02/no-crede-no-problem/ An A's-Giants blog Sat, 18 May 2013 11:46:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4.2 By: Brad Jensen http://baybridgebaseball.com/2009/02/no-crede-no-problem/comment-page-1/#comment-482 Brad Jensen Wed, 18 Feb 2009 18:29:53 +0000 http://baybridgebaseball.com/?p=437#comment-482 I doubt the Giants offered Crede much more than an incentive laden package. They have a plan in place if they don't sign anyone and don't need to get out of line. If you can get Crede on that kind of contract that's a gamble worth taking. You invest little base salary and if the guy gets hurt again or doesn't perform you haven't lost much and you have internal options as a fall back. I've been a pretty big critic of the Giants piss poor drafting and free agent policies of the last few years but I think they did a quality job this year of sticking to a rebuilding philosophy and investing smart money. They probably overpaid for Renteria but at the time he was the best option available to them and I think the contract Johnson got was reasonable. For the most part they are going to find out what they've got internally and doing that along with a couple of vets with a lot of post season experience is the way to go. Even in a rebuilding year the rest of the division hasn't gotten better and in many cases worse. They have the best pitching in the division and if the Dodgers fail to get Manny they have to be the favorite. Even if the Dodgers have Manny their pitching is suspect and the Giants are probably still the favorite. I doubt the Giants offered Crede much more than an incentive laden package. They have a plan in place if they don’t sign anyone and don’t need to get out of line. If you can get Crede on that kind of contract that’s a gamble worth taking. You invest little base salary and if the guy gets hurt again or doesn’t perform you haven’t lost much and you have internal options as a fall back.

I’ve been a pretty big critic of the Giants piss poor drafting and free agent policies of the last few years but I think they did a quality job this year of sticking to a rebuilding philosophy and investing smart money. They probably overpaid for Renteria but at the time he was the best option available to them and I think the contract Johnson got was reasonable. For the most part they are going to find out what they’ve got internally and doing that along with a couple of vets with a lot of post season experience is the way to go. Even in a rebuilding year the rest of the division hasn’t gotten better and in many cases worse. They have the best pitching in the division and if the Dodgers fail to get Manny they have to be the favorite. Even if the Dodgers have Manny their pitching is suspect and the Giants are probably still the favorite.

]]> By: giantsrainman http://baybridgebaseball.com/2009/02/no-crede-no-problem/comment-page-1/#comment-443 giantsrainman Mon, 16 Feb 2009 04:16:56 +0000 http://baybridgebaseball.com/?p=437#comment-443 Thought you might like to know what the "just slightly more scientific" projection systems think: Joe Crede ZIPS - Not yet available PECOTA - Not yet available Bill James - .759 OPS in 327 PAs Chone - .763 OPS in 470 PAs Marcel - .755 OPS in 404 PAs Oliver - .723 OPS in 390 PAs AVG - .750 OPS in 398 PAs Travis Ishikawa ZIPS - .731 OPS in 487 PAs PECOTA - .748 OPS in 363 PAs Bill James - .816 OPS in 188 PAs Chone - .754 OPS in 478 PAs Marcel - .781 OPS in 252 PAs Oliver - .783 OPS in 568 PAs AVG - .769 OPS in 389 PAs They actually give a slight edge to Ishikawa (.769 AVG OPS vs .750 AVG OPS). Bottom line, commiting dollars to Crede is not a good idea. The production added for these dollars in at best only slightly better and actually more likely to be worse. Thought you might like to know what the “just slightly more scientific” projection systems think:

Joe Crede
ZIPS – Not yet available
PECOTA – Not yet available
Bill James – .759 OPS in 327 PAs
Chone – .763 OPS in 470 PAs
Marcel – .755 OPS in 404 PAs
Oliver – .723 OPS in 390 PAs
AVG – .750 OPS in 398 PAs

Travis Ishikawa
ZIPS – .731 OPS in 487 PAs
PECOTA – .748 OPS in 363 PAs
Bill James – .816 OPS in 188 PAs
Chone – .754 OPS in 478 PAs
Marcel – .781 OPS in 252 PAs
Oliver – .783 OPS in 568 PAs
AVG – .769 OPS in 389 PAs

They actually give a slight edge to Ishikawa (.769 AVG OPS vs .750 AVG OPS). Bottom line, commiting dollars to Crede is not a good idea. The production added for these dollars in at best only slightly better and actually more likely to be worse.

]]> By: Marvin http://baybridgebaseball.com/2009/02/no-crede-no-problem/comment-page-1/#comment-442 Marvin Mon, 16 Feb 2009 02:08:46 +0000 http://baybridgebaseball.com/?p=437#comment-442 Did you include costs for the two players in your percentages? I would think that Crede would be an expensive gamble, while you already have another player, even if slightly less likely to do well, under contract. Did you include costs for the two players in your percentages? I would think that Crede would be an expensive gamble, while you already have another player, even if slightly less likely to do well, under contract.

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