No Crede? No problem

Posted By on February 15, 2009 4:02 pm

If my colleague Andy Baggarly is correct, the Giants are not getting Joe Crede. That seems like a pefectly reasonable decision on their part.

I know as well as the next guy that the Giants’ offense is (probably) not good enough to get the team to the playoffs, which is why a guy like Manny (or even Adam Dunn) made some sense for them. However, Joe Crede is not Manny. He’s not even Adam Dunn. About all he does have going for him is that he plays the right position.

It’s true that Crede was a very productive player the last time he was healthy, but that was in a hitter-friendly ballpark three years ago. And the two years he’s missed have been because of back problems. I think you wouldn’t be losing much as a GM if you never gave a penny to a player who had been on the DL with a bad back. Backs are just nasty. (Which brings me to Randy Johnson, but that’s another post.)

Do you remember the last time the Giants signed a third baseman who was around Crede’s age, who had some very productive offensive years before hurting his back?

It was Edgardo Alfonzo.

Yeah, I hear ya.

Bottom line is Crede would have been just as big a gamble as Travis Ishikawa, the player who figures to get the at-bats that he would have gotten. I’ve done a little number crunching using the ol’ FPSNOTA (Fletcher Pulls Some Numbers Out of Thin Air), and determined this…
 


  Has a Good Year Is a Bust
Crede 31% 69%
Ishikawa 28% 72%


 So there is it, in black and white. Science.

Comments

3 Responses to “No Crede? No problem”

  1. Marvin says:

    Did you include costs for the two players in your percentages? I would think that Crede would be an expensive gamble, while you already have another player, even if slightly less likely to do well, under contract.

  2. giantsrainman says:

    Thought you might like to know what the “just slightly more scientific” projection systems think:

    Joe Crede
    ZIPS – Not yet available
    PECOTA – Not yet available
    Bill James – .759 OPS in 327 PAs
    Chone – .763 OPS in 470 PAs
    Marcel – .755 OPS in 404 PAs
    Oliver – .723 OPS in 390 PAs
    AVG – .750 OPS in 398 PAs

    Travis Ishikawa
    ZIPS – .731 OPS in 487 PAs
    PECOTA – .748 OPS in 363 PAs
    Bill James – .816 OPS in 188 PAs
    Chone – .754 OPS in 478 PAs
    Marcel – .781 OPS in 252 PAs
    Oliver – .783 OPS in 568 PAs
    AVG – .769 OPS in 389 PAs

    They actually give a slight edge to Ishikawa (.769 AVG OPS vs .750 AVG OPS). Bottom line, commiting dollars to Crede is not a good idea. The production added for these dollars in at best only slightly better and actually more likely to be worse.

  3. Brad Jensen says:

    I doubt the Giants offered Crede much more than an incentive laden package. They have a plan in place if they don’t sign anyone and don’t need to get out of line. If you can get Crede on that kind of contract that’s a gamble worth taking. You invest little base salary and if the guy gets hurt again or doesn’t perform you haven’t lost much and you have internal options as a fall back.

    I’ve been a pretty big critic of the Giants piss poor drafting and free agent policies of the last few years but I think they did a quality job this year of sticking to a rebuilding philosophy and investing smart money. They probably overpaid for Renteria but at the time he was the best option available to them and I think the contract Johnson got was reasonable. For the most part they are going to find out what they’ve got internally and doing that along with a couple of vets with a lot of post season experience is the way to go. Even in a rebuilding year the rest of the division hasn’t gotten better and in many cases worse. They have the best pitching in the division and if the Dodgers fail to get Manny they have to be the favorite. Even if the Dodgers have Manny their pitching is suspect and the Giants are probably still the favorite.

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