Comments on: Jonathan Sanchez: What do you think?

By: Bay Bridge Baseball

Bay Bridge Baseball — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 16:35:58 +0000

[...] it out, if they are going to. You may recall I did a post before last season in which I said I never thought he’d amount to more than a back-end starter, and I stand by that, a no-hitter [...]

By: obsessivegiantscompulsive

obsessivegiantscompulsive — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 20:44:00 +0000

Yes, you’ve been running into the wrong people. :^)

Pitchers who can strike out over 1 per inning is very rare. Hence why Sandy Koufax was kept around though he walked a lot of batters too. Hence why Eric Threets was kept around though he walked a lot of batters too, for that matter.

A study I have seen by Derek Carty, showed that pitchers how can strikeout at least double his walks, even if he walks a lot, was more effective than pitchers who can strikeout out at least double, but don’t strike out as much. Strikeouts are that important/powerful.

The key thing to remember about Sanchez is that he’s only 26 for next season, still young, still developing. He had a 3.97 ERA up to the All-Star break, which is very good, but then was horrible the rest of the season. That suggests that he tired out by mid-season, most probably because he did not throw that many innings in 2006 and 2007 while relieving for the team. Ideally, he should have been starting in AA and AAA those seasons, but the Giants needed him in the bullpen those seasons.

So 2009 is the prove it year for Sanchez as a starter, and given the evidence above, if he can prove it, he would be a very valuable player, whether in trade or in our rotation.

In addition, BP research showed that one of the factors that are tied to a team’s success in the playoffs (i.e. going deep) is the pitching staff’s K/9 rate. Obviously, keeping a high K/9 pitching like Sanchez, once he developed, would help your team with getting their K/9 rate high.

By: Alex

Alex — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:57:00 +0000

Hi Jeff, I think you’re missing a major point here…prior to his first 14 starts of last season, he was being moved around from the bullpen to starting from the minors to the big leagues etc. Last year was his first FULL season as a big league starter, and you’re not considering that he might have just been worn out at the end of the season?

His first half of the season last year is the reason fans (including myself) are excited…how many of the players on that list started out as relief pitchers?

By: Jeremy

Jeremy — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 20:49:00 +0000

It was mentioned above, but his being shuffled around from the rotation to the bullpen skews his stats. His minor league stats (FIP, K/9, K/BB)as a starter are very impressive, and as he continues to build his stamina he should continue to improve. BR/BR/Doubt he becomes Roy Halladay, but a very good #3 is a strong possibility.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:53:00 +0000

Sanchez is worth holding onto because when he’s right, he’s nasty – he misses bats. The upside on this guy is huge, and if he could maintain that 14 game streak from mid last year over a full season, we’d have an unbelievable staff. If Sanchez can be dominant as our # 3 or # 4 starter – it’s worth holding onto him. Steve Avery wasn’t great on the Braves because of his stuff, he was great on the Braves b/c he was their # 4. It’s worth the risk, because we’re not going to get a good bat for him (like Uggla) so why not roll the dice. Even as he is now, he’s a competent # 4/5. BA

By: Dave

Dave — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 19:07:00 +0000

Jeff, Sanchez is rough around the edges with control and his walks, and he needs to build up his stamina, as I think he faded last year with the mounting innings that may have not been used to throwing. But I do like his first pitch effectiveness, and his one strikeout per inning threat. With a little more coaching, I think he could be more effective than Lowry. Is Righetti really a good pitching coach?? He has been around a long time, but i am not sure if that is because of his knowledge…

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 17:40:00 +0000

If his first-pitch strike percentage is good, but he still walks a lot of batters, it sounds like he has trouble spotting his secondary/breaking pitches. This is something most young pitchers struggle with.

By: otis

otis — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 17:08:00 +0000

He’s better than his ERA, but his mechanics go to hell when he gets tired. I think he’ll be very good if either he manages to overcome that or the Giants just work with it.

By: Mr. N.O.

Mr. N.O. — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 16:50:00 +0000

He had a great start to last season, then struggled at the end. I think that this can easily be overcome with more experience pitching a major league schedule. That being said, I am not attached to Sanchez. I think the Giants should wait to see how Noah Lowry recovers and then assess who is better Lowry or Sanchez. Then if you can get some value in a trade for either one then “pull the trigger.”

By: West Coast Bias

West Coast Bias — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 16:26:00 +0000

Jeff, I love your stuff. My thing with Sanchez is, not that he’s great or I think he’s going to be great but, that I don’t beleive there is a great deal of value right now. If they trade Sanchez now, what’s the best they could get? Jorge Cantu? Maybe a slightly above-average player who can’t field. If Sanchez pitches all of 2009 and goes, for example, 13-13 with a 4.50 ERA (reasonable numbers I think), his value after 2009 could be more than it is right now. Pitchers that are innings-eaters with respectable contracts, like Snachez, command a lot in trade because if they hit the open market. Randy Wolf could get $5-6 million/year and he has a good K rate like Sanchez. But he has an injury history. My point is that Sanchez, if he stays healthy this year, even with average results, should be worth more after 2009 than he is right now.